In response to the announcement that Finland and Sweden were seriously considering joining NATO, the former Russian president and close Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia would respond to the move by deploying nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles to the Baltic.
The implicit threat of placing nuclear weapons just a short distance from Finland, Lithuania, and other Baltic states escalates the nuclear war of words from Putin.
Lithuania said Russia’s threats were nothing new and that Moscow had deployed nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad long before the war in Ukraine. NATO did not immediately respond to Russia’s warning.
Still, the possible accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO – founded in 1949 to provide Western security against the Soviet Union – would be one of the biggest strategic consequences of the war in Ukraine.
Finland gained independence from Russia in 1917 and fought two wars against it during World War Two during which it lost some territory. On Thursday, Finland announced a military exercise in Western Finland with the participation of Britain, the United States, Latvia and Estonia.
The tighter that Putin and Biden tie the knot, the harder it will be to unravel. For every aggressive move that Biden makes, Putin feels obliged to answer. Obviously, this is not a path to peace.
Biden is correct in helping Ukraine respond to this threat against its existence. He has done a good job in fashioning a strong coalition to fight Putin’s land grab. Putin must not be allowed to get away with it.
But at some point, Biden has to be strong enough and smart enough to help Putin find an off-ramp to this debacle he has created.
“No sane person wants higher prices and higher taxes, increased tensions along borders, Iskanders, hypersonics and ships with nuclear weapons literally at arm’s length from their own home,” Medvedev said.
“Let’s hope that the common sense of our northern neighbours will win.”
While Putin is Russia’s paramount leader, Medvedev’s comments reflect Kremlin thinking and he is a senior member of the security council – one of Putin’s main chambers for decision making on strategic issues.
Putin needs to get something out of this war, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears willing to give him something. He has indicated a willingness to discuss the eastern Donbas region as a means to an agreement. That area isn’t controlled by Ukraine anyway, and the expense in blood to recover it wouldn’t be worth the effort since the majority of residents in Donbas are ethnic Russians.
Biden shouldn’t want this war to continue one minute longer than it has to. Advising Zelenskyy to make a deal on Donbas is the smart thing to do while offering Putin some minor sanctions relief to get his armies to withdraw might accomplish more than any more nuclear saber-rattling.
The last thing NATO needs is two more weak sisters that would require their security to be subsidized by the United States.
“A chain is only as strong as its weakest link,” as the adage goes. In the case of Finland and Sweden, their addition to NATO would lessen the alliance’s overall strength and add nothing to its effectiveness.