The world is a mess.
It’s not all Biden’s fault, obviously. But a good deal of what’s gone wrong in the last year can be laid at Biden’s feet. Massive, unnecessary spending has led to a completely predictable bout of inflation. The economy is showing signs of slowing after a roaring 2021.
And, while it will be argued for many years, a good case can be made that Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine happened because Putin believed Biden was too weak and the United States too distracted to resist him.
Actually, Biden has shown unexpected strength in marshaling an impressive worldwide coalition to oppose Putin. But regardless of how the war in Ukraine is resolved, Biden’s real challenge will be winning the peace and establishing a new post-cold war international order to replace the one that Putin has shattered in his invasion of Ukraine.
No easy task, that. But for Biden, it’s a challenge that’s far more interesting and potentially politically rewarding than fighting an unwinnable battle against inflation or trying to unite the country behind a left-wing woke vision.
During his speech Tuesday, the president is expected to champion the sanctions and his own efforts in building a “global coalition to fight against the autocracy” of the Kremlin, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said Sunday.
“If you look back when President [Barack] Obama gave his first State of the Union, it was during the worst financial crisis in a generation,” Psaki said. “When President [George W.] Bush gave his first State of the Union, it was shortly after 9/11. Leaders lead during crises. That’s exactly what President Biden is doing.”
Prior to the Russian invasion, the speech was probably 80% devoted to domestic policy and 20% foreign policy. That balance has almost certainly flipped with foreign policy dominating the news and Biden’s time.
But that 20% of the speech will be more important in the long run. It’s tempting for Biden to concentrate on foreign policy when inflation is the highest it’s been in 40 years. But Ukraine is a long way away and far removed from the meat and potato issues of jobs and prices.
The economy is also a key issue for Biden’s State of the Union address as inflation reaches a 40-year high and gasoline prices hit their highest level in eight years. Biden has warned that his sanctions against Russia could drive up gas prices even more, which could further impact his approval ratings, where the overwhelming majority of voters say skyrocketing grocery and energy prices are causing them financial hardship, according to a new Fox News Poll.
That same poll put Biden’s approval rating at a dismal 43%, the lowest of this presidency, and only 37% approve of his handling of the economy.
That 43% approval is an aggregate. More recent polling shows Biden doing much worse.
The poll, from ABC News and The Washington Post, found that 37 percent of adults in the U.S. strongly or somewhat approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president, compared to 55 percent who said they strongly or somewhat disapprove. Seven percent said they had no opinion.
The approval is a 4-point drop from November, when ABC News and the Post found that Biden had a 41 percent approval rating among adults in the U.S.
It’s likely Biden will barely mention “Build Back Better” since the legislation is, for all intents and purposes, dead and buried. And other legislative priorities are equally stalled, although he will almost certainly complain again about Republicans blocking his “voting rights” bill.
Related: The Morning Briefing: Oh God, Biden Is Going to Try and Use Words
David Axelrod believes Biden needs to show a little “humility.”
“The state of the union is stressed,” Axelrod wrote for the New York Times. “To claim otherwise — to highlight the progress we have made, without fully acknowledging the hard road we have traveled and the distance we need to go — would seem off-key and out of touch. You simply cannot jawbone Americans into believing that things are better than they feel.”
Is Biden up to it? Immediately after the speech, the media will tell us that Biden saved his presidency and it was the best State of the Union speech since Barack Obama. The headlines have already been fashioned and the copy has been written.
But Axelrod is right. You can’t “jawbone” the American people into believing what isn’t true.