From Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics:
Two years ago, President Donald Trump signed what he called a “historical trade deal” with China that committed China to purchase $200 billion of additional US exports before December 31, 2021. Today the only undisputed “historical” aspect of that agreement is its failure. One lesson is not to make deals that cannot be fulfilled when unforeseen events inevitably occur—in this case, a pandemic and a recession. Another is not to forget the complementary policies needed to give an agreement a chance to succeed.
In the end, China bought only 57 percent of the US exports it had committed to purchase under the agreement, not even enough to reach its import levels from before the trade war. Put differently, China bought none of the additional $200 billion of exports Trump’s deal had promised.
Bown demonstrates that China was never at any point on pace to meet its commitments under the deal; U.S. manufacturing exports suffered under the deal; agriculture exports only did well because of billions in federal subsidies; and U.S. exports to China overall probably would have been higher without the trade war.
Trade wars may not be as good and easy to win as a certain former president said.
