The Trump folks look at Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania as the key states — if they win those, Trump wins the presidency again. And that’s not a wild scenario. Trump has clearly closed the gap in Pennsylvania. GOP internals show him down about two to four points now, when he was losing by about six to eight points roughly six weeks ago. Meanwhile, Trump leads by four points among likely voters in Florida in the new ABC/Washington Post poll and by one point among likely voters in Arizona.

On the other hand, other polls have Biden leading in Florida and Arizona, and he could conceivably expand the map elsewhere. A Des Moines Register poll has him tied with Trump in Iowa. A Rasmussen poll had him ahead in Ohio a couple of weeks ago. If he wins in places such as Iowa and Ohio, it’s going to be a huge night for him.

So here we are, with the range of realistic possibilities that includes another Trump win or, in electoral terms, a Biden landslide. A small shift one way or the other, and races can easily tilt one way or another right at end, could make an enormous difference.

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