According to a new survey from Rasmussen Reports, Donald Trump has a narrow lead over Joe Biden among likely voters in North Carolina, with 48 percent support to Biden’s 46 percent. Three percent of respondents said they favor a different candidate, and 3 percent are undecided.

Most polls of North Carolina, one of several key swing states this cycle, have shown a fairly tight race, especially since mid July. A CNBC/Change Research survey from earlier this week, for instance, found that likely voters in North Carolina say they favor Biden by two points over Trump, 49 percent to 47 percent.

The RealClearPolitics average of North Carolina general-election polls, meanwhile, gives Biden a very small edge, with a 0.8-percent lead over Trump. In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton in North Carolina by about 3.5 points, a margin of nearly 200,000 votes.

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But while today’s Rasmussen poll puts Trump slightly ahead, it’s also a somewhat disconcerting sign for the GOP, as it shows incumbent Republican senator Thom Tillis trailing Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham by three points. No major poll since June, as reported by RCP, has put Tillis in the lead.

Judging from most recent polling, North Carolina is the swing state where Trump is performing the best against Biden, followed closely by Florida.