How Would Impeaching Joe Biden Impact the 2024 Election?

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On Tuesday, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) announced an impeachment inquiry. It was a long time coming and a welcome development for those who have been following the investigations and have seen the evidence of Biden’s corruption. Of course, not all Republicans are on board, figuring that with the Democrats in control of the U.S. Senate, impeachment is possible but conviction is not.

The media, of course, is already providing cover for Biden, dismissing evidence and testimony and claiming that there’s “no evidence” justifying impeachment. One reporter even claimed that Americans will merely see this as “political revenge for the impeachment of Donald Trump.”

This had me wondering about what kind of impact the impeachment inquiry will have on Joe Biden and the 2024 election. Biden has been underwater in the polls since his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan during his first year in office, and Democrats aren’t exactly thrilled about him being their nominee. Could this impeachment cause a rallying effect behind Joe Biden before the 2024 election?

While I don’t discount the possibility of a short-lived boost for Biden, I don’t see impeachment changing the dynamics of the 2024 presidential election.

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As I’ve previously pointed out, multiple polls show that Americans are quite convinced of Biden’s corruption already, which means that an impeachment inquiry is only likely to reinforce those beliefs. Based on various polls, nearly three-quarters of American adults believe Hunter Biden benefited financially from his father’s position, and more than half of voters are already convinced that Biden “likely” took bribes. Republicans already have a trove of evidence against Biden, and an impeachment inquiry will give them even more investigative powers to unravel the web of corruption that the Biden family has profited from over the years.

Related: Why Impeaching Joe Biden Is a Smart Move

Unlike the first impeachment of Donald Trump, which was based on the Democrats’ partisan interpretation of a phone call, it’s hard to explain how the public can dismiss all the evidence. Between Joe Biden participating in Hunter’s business calls, the millions of dollars in foreign cash that the Biden family laundered through 20 shell companies, Devon Archer’s testimony, Joe Biden’s admitting to using a $1 billion loan as leverage to get Viktor Shokin fired, the longtime FBI informant saying that the head of Burisma bribed Joe and Hunter, and the pseudonymous emails between Joe and Hunter, the White House and the Democratic Party are going to have a tough time explaining all this and coming up with a convincing explanation that Biden wasn’t selling influence.

When most Americans are already convinced, I can only see things getting worse as the media covers the hearings. So it’s hard to see how Joe Biden doesn’t come out of impeachment stronger than he was beforehand.

But what if I’m wrong? I don’t have a crystal ball and have been wrong in the past. It is conceivable that Democrats who weren’t excited for Joe Biden and think he’s guilty will buy into the narrative that this is mere political revenge and this could boost Biden’s standing within his own party.

That may not be a bad thing either.

I noted yesterday that Townhall columnist Derek Hunter thinks the GOP is better off running against Joe Biden in 2024 than for him to drop out and for another candidate to emerge. Right now, Biden’s low poll numbers and poor showing against Trump and other GOP primary candidates have Democrats worried, and there are whispers that he might not stay in the race.

An impeachment inquiry, even if doesn’t give Biden a sustained boost, would likely keep Biden in the race longer than he might be otherwise. You don’t need to be a high-priced political consultant to understand that dropping out of the race amidst an impeachment inquiry would be horrible optics.

Trump’s first impeachment inquiry began on Dec. 18, 2019, and the Senate acquitted him on Feb. 5, 2020. If we figure there will be a similar timeline for Joe Biden’s impeachment, that means everything will be wrapped up by roughly mid-November. If Biden intends to drop out, it wouldn’t be until some time after impeachment was wrapped up, which means that Democrats will be scrambling to deal with no longer having an incumbent and de facto nominee. In that situation, they may have to coalesce behind Kamala Harris.

That’s a win for the GOP.

Of course, the other option is that Joe Biden becomes so emboldened by impeachment that he sticks things out even longer, perhaps through to Election Day. If you think his cognitive decline is impossible for the media to cover up now, just see how things are in a year.

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