For some time now, we’ve been watching Joe Biden’s rapid decline, and with that, speculation that he may not be the Democrats’ 2024 nominee. Between his underwater approval ratings and lackluster match-up polls with Donald Trump, Democrats have every reason to be nervous about Biden being their nominee. Heck, they didn’t want him as their nominee in the first place. But for whatever reason, Ol’ Joe decided to run again — and no Democrat who wants a future in the party would dare launch a primary challenge to him.
So Republicans are actively looking forward to Biden’s potential dropping out. But over at our sister site, Townhall, columnist Derek Hunter argues that Joe Biden may actually be the candidate we want to run against. Between his terrible record and his cognitive issues, Derek argues that Biden is the guy we want to face next November.
“Right now […] Joe Biden is less popular than Hillary Clinton was in 2016. It doesn’t seem possible, but it’s true. Biden is in Jimmy Carter territory, which Carter himself has to be happy he lived long enough to see,” he writes.
And things are bound to get worse, as Biden’s mental deterioration will reach a point at which it will be nearly impossible for the left-wing media to prop him up. It’s hard to see how Joe Biden can even win at this point, and the media is freaking out about it. But when the time comes that Democrats may have no choice but to let Biden go, the dynamics of the race will change significantly. Republicans will have to run a different kind of campaign that they’re currently not prepared to run.
It’s an interesting theory.
Right now, pretty much every Republican candidate is beating Biden in a head-to-head match-up. There’s still a lifetime between now and the presidential election, but Biden is in an extremely weak position for an incumbent — which is great for the GOP. But if Joe Biden drops out, not only will that mean a major strategy shift for the GOP, but it also means that Democrats will be forced into what could be a bitter primary.
But there’s a small complication.
Kamala Harris will assume the mantle of the heir apparent and pseudo-incumbent. As such, if Biden has to drop out “for health reasons” after primary elections have started next year, Democrats may be forced to clear the field of potential candidates in the hopes of getting the party to coalesce around Kamala quickly and hope for the best.
The problem with that is that she’s also the least popular vice president in the history of polling. She fares even worse than Biden in match-up polls, and she’s a terrible campaigner. If she became the nominee, the GOP might be in just as advantageous a position as they were with Joe Biden.
Related: Can Joe Biden Actually Win?
Of course, not everyone will sit out a primary and allow Kamala Harris to be handed the nomination. In that case, a Democratic primary wouldn’t necessarily hurt the GOP, either. Sure, Democrats are, as Derek says, “plug and play” leftists with the same radical objectives, but they also fight bitter primaries, trying to decide who should represent the party, and that gives the GOP time to adapt.
So while I think Derek Hunter makes a good case that the GOP may not want Joe Biden to drop out, I think the chaos of Biden dropping out mid-campaign would be just as problematic for the Democrats as the Republicans.
Frankly, I’m not sure what the best scenario for the GOP is.