What Really Matters in November?

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For months, the Republican Party enjoyed a consistent lead in generic ballot polls, but, shortly after the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, polls began to close. Now, they’re a mixed bag, with some polls showing Democrats up several points and others showing Republicans up several points—but the establishment media is doing everything possible to hype up the Democrats’ chances in November and suppress GOP turnout.

That’s not to say the dynamic of the race hasn’t shifted. Liberal women with a soft spot for killing babies are definitely more pumped to vote now than before. Earlier this week, I saw a rather homely woman in the supermarket wearing a t-shirt that read “See you in Roe-vember.”

I laughed. I’m not scared.

But, as PJM’s Rick Moran reported earlier, according to a new YouGov poll, these liberal women are—contrary to conventional wisdom—not the most enthused demographic to vote in November. Republican men are. The Washington Post‘s Phillip Bump seemed flabbergasted by the results of the poll.

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From the time of the leak of the Dobbs draft opinion to the present, Democrat women and men experienced a spike in enthusiasm, but that is now trending downward. Independents and Republican women have remained consistent, but the enthusiasm of Republican men is trending up. Not once since Dobbs have Democrats of either gender matched that of Republicans.

Philip Bump predictably tries to quell concern amongst the liberal readers of the Washington Post.

“Does this mean that Democratic women won’t defy expectations in November? No. Does this mean that Republicans will overperform on expected turnout? No,” he insists. “But it does mean that — at least in this polling from YouGov — the idea that Democratic women in particular are newly and exceptionally energized doesn’t get much support.”

Bump was also too stunned by the results to even attempt to put forward a theory as to why Republican men are suddenly experiencing a burst of enthusiasm; however, those who have been paying attention in recent weeks are aware of the answer. The increase in enthusiasm from Republican men is most certainly connected to the FBI raid on Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago last month.

A recent poll from Convention of States Action and the Trafalgar Group found that 76.7% of Republicans believe Trump’s political enemies were behind the raid on Mar-a-Lago, and 83.3% of Republicans reported that the raid increased their motivation to vote in November. So why is Bump surprised? We’ve been pointing this out for weeks.

But make no mistake about it. like the Dobbs decision before it, the impact of the raid on enthusiasm is likely to be short-lived. Joe Biden seems intent on giving Republicans more reasons to crawl over broken glass to vote in November, such as his recent primetime speech declaring MAGA Republicans a threat to Democracy.

Dobbs won’t save the Democrats in November, nor will the FBI raid propel Republicans to victory. In the end, it’s the kitchen table issues that are going to matter most, and gas prices are still at a historical high; just because they’ve gone down doesn’t mean they’re at a level that Americans are completely happy with. And there’s still plenty of reason to believe things will continue to get worse for Democrats—including predictions that gas prices are expected to rise again and possibly hit record highs before the election.

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