There’s still a long road ahead between now and the 2022 elections elections, but it will be a spectacular irony if 1) as Dave Wasserman contends, Democrats actually are gaining more winnable seats through redistricting than Republicans are, considering how loudly Democrats scream “Republicans plan to manipulate the redistricting process and gerrymander themselves into an illegitimate majority in the U.S. House of Representatives!” and 2) the new district lines don’t matter much in the end, because Republicans are set for a “red tsunami” year anyway. Republicans lead on the generic ballot (which they almost never do), Biden’s approval rating is terrible, the midterm elections traditionally go bad for the president’s party, and the country is in a bad mood because of high inflation, high gas prices, high food prices, the continuing supply chain problems, a worker shortage, the border, Covid-19 not being shut down, arguments about mask mandates, Afghanistan, and so on.

Republicans aren’t guaranteed to have a huge red wave year… but it is looking pretty likely at this point.