Free States Faring Far Better Than Lockdown States in One Huge Way, New Data Show

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When COVID-19 first came to our shores, it presented policymakers and elected officials with a crisis like nothing in living memory. In the year since, states have taken markedly different approaches to pandemic policy. Some, like New York, embraced sweeping government lockdowns and top-down mandates while others like Florida and South Dakota took a more humble, hands-off government approach, trusting individuals to make the best decisions for themselves.

The results are in—and they overwhelmingly vindicate the free states over the authoritarian experiments. First, we saw that states with the harshest restrictions didn’t necessarily achieve the best COVID-19 death outcomes. Florida has fared far better than New York and New Jersey, for example, and multiple studies have found no correlation between lockdown stringency and death rates

Yet lockdowns have come at an enormous economic and human cost. We’ve seen mental health problems and child suicide spikes, an increase in domestic violence, an uptick in drug overdoses, and much, much more. And, of course, the economic toll of shutting down businesses and criminalizing “non-essential” livelihoods has been devastating.

The national unemployment rate was a poor if not disastrous 6.2 percent in February. Yet the just-released state-level unemployment rates for last month show that the devastation hasn’t been equal across the board. New Labor Department data reveal that many free states have returned to nearly their pre-pandemic unemployment rates—while lockdown states dominate the wrong end of the list. 

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Hands-off states such as South Dakota, Utah, Nebraska, and New Hampshire top the list with unemployment rates hovering around a stellar 3 percent. States that received enormous flak for eschewing drastic lockdowns like Georgia and Florida both rank in the top 20. Perhaps the only obvious outlier is Texas, which ranks poorly with an unemployment rate of 6.9 percent—but, then again, Governor Greg Abbott only rolled back the remaining restrictions in the Lone Star state earlier this month. 

Meanwhile, the worst 10 states, with unemployment rates from 7 to 9 percent, include lockdown-happy localities like New York, New Jersey, California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, D.C., and Rhode Island.

There is a clear trend here. Free states have largely avoided the labor market carnage associated with the COVID pandemic, while lockdown states have wrought higher unemployment levels—without guaranteeing better pandemic health outcomes. 

As famed economist Thomas Sowell said, in complex issues of public policy “there are no solutions, there are only tradeoffs.” There was never an easy answer to the COVID pandemic, but the economic, health, and social outcomes of free states all suggest that they made the right call in rejecting the authoritarian instinct embraced by too many of their neighbors.

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16 Comments

  1. Has anyone taken into account POPULATION DENSITY in looking at relationship between hands-off and tight policies? Most of the states listed as having hard hits from shutdowns are those with a lot of people concentrated in smaller geography and/or very dense cities. Wouldn’t that make a big difference?

    1. No doubt population density has an effect. However the proponents of lockdown didn’t take that into consideration when they were insisting that lockdowns should be imposed on the entire country. Recently the Texas decision to join the ranks of the “free” states was called Neanderthal thinking. Seems to me the states that are choosing to continue lockdowns are making a poor choice with regard to the trade offs.

        1. Also median age should be considered. Florida has a higher concentration of elderly and still Florida is doing better than New York. The demonRATS do not to give up total control of their states because it makes them feel like they are GOD.

    2. If you want to talk of “population density” one should look at China and India. What have you heard coming out of those nations?? Diddly SQUAT because fake news DOES NOT report the facts. It is believed that China had developed a vaccine before releasing it to destroy every other nation so they could emerge as the world’s only super power. Fake News ABHORS the truth and focuses on sensationalism to promote their owners agenda!!!

      1. Facts!! According to Lester Holt, the media now decide what the truth and facts are. He says they will decide whether both sides deserve equal time or not. They feel they are now judge, jury, and executioner. Google it, makes your skin crawl. Talk about cancel culture, MSM needs canceled right along with the demonrats.

  2. Lieberal Demoshits KNEW that a LOCKDOWN wouldn’t stop Covid, because viruses cannot be stopped.
    There was never a reason to lockdown everyone. Anyone relatively young or healthy never had a reason to fear death from Covid. The survival rate is 99%. But for anyone relatively healthy under the age of 65, it’s near 100%.
    Over time, lockdowns would cause more deaths than Covid- from suicide, depression, loneliness, drug and alcohol addiction, joblessness, poverty and stress (from being unsure how to feed your family). But Demoshits have PROVEN more times than one can count that they do not care for the safety of the American people they only care about POWER and CONTROL. A lockdown provides BOTH!!!
    And worst of all, lockdowns would destroy the economy. Destroying the economy was the ONLY way to unseat a GOAT POTUS. If the economy was healthy there was no way they could pull off the biggest heist in history. If grandma or grandpa is sick or dying with Covid, how does it help them if their kids and grandkids lose their business, job, or home? It only makes things much worse.
    Everyone (including LIEberal Demoshits) knows that grandma and grandpa would not want their kids and grandkids to be jobless, hopeless, or homeless. That doesn’t help grandpa or grandma. They want their kids and grandkids to live life and prosper. That’s how you honor grandpa and grandma.
    I imparted, the only way to fight Covid and pay for Covid, was to keep the economy open and healthy. And keep Americans employed and I was 100% Correct .
    Florida is Exhibit A. Everyone needs to know the Florida story.
    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis should be “America’s Hero Governor.” He stood strong in the face of massive pressure to close the state, close the economy, lockdown the people, order mask mandates. He refused. He kept Florida open for business.
    Now look at the amazing results. Florida’s economy is booming, people are happy, the quality of life is high, and very few are sick. It worked!
    Even though Florida has been wide open for almost a year now (without masks); even though Florida has millions of retired senior citizens; Florida still has less deaths and hospitalizations than any of the know-it-all liberal lockdown states run by authoritarian Democrat Governors. Florida’s numbers are better than New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California, Michigan, Illinois, or any other deep blue state.
    Yes, Florida has less death and hospitalizations, AND the people of Florida kept their businesses open; kept their jobs; the kids all went to school; people kept on living their normal lives.

    1. The WHO, the scumbags they are, said this early on.

      Lockdowns are best used, in short amounts, to give Doctors a chance to gather their breath and start working on finding a cure. In short, lockdowns were used to “catch our breath” after the shock and not for lengthy periods of time. They also said that long term lockdowns were detrimental and did more damage than they could prevent. In fact, they even said the ones most hurt by extended lockdowns would be the lower class.

      Yes, the WHO actually gave factual medical information for a change!

  3. Yes, population has an effect. So does the age of the people involved. New York has more deaths than Florida and the vulnerable population (elderly people/retired people) in Florida is much higher that New York. There are numerous reasons for the spreading of the virus but LOCK DOWNS and MASKS have not been proven the help anything related to COVID other than feel good that you have done something. All this super continuous germ killing spree (advertised 99.9% effective) with all the Lysol and other disinfectants also reduces the body’s ability to insure that the immune system stays alert and effective, YOU NEED GERMS.

    I watched an attendant at Costco go and wipe down a credit card machine after every card was place in the slot (no human touched the machine during the transaction) but when I paid cash there was no wash-down of the currency before putting it in the register and pulled out the change without cleansing it and handed it to me. Kind of a waste of time and accomplishes nothing more than the liberal Demoncrats telling you that they care. I am in the vulnerable age (almost 80) and I do not follow the CDC guidelines because I do not believe they work. I believe that if you eat as they used to say you will eat “a peck of dirt in you life” and I say Germs (not all are bad) go with it, you will have a long and wonderful life, without GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION/MANDATORY FLU SHOTS OR FLU PASSPORTS.

    1. Absolutely! They will be glad to accept your cash without wiping it down! It’s absolute NONSENSE!

    2. My mother is over 80. She takes care of herself as best as she can. She said that if Covid takes her, it was her time to go. She’s not a nihilist or anything, she’s just accepted the fact that at her age, any major illness could potentially kill her. So, she’s not going to worry about Covid. After all, worry won’t change things, it’ll just add unneeded stress, which as we know, only serves to weaken our immune systems.

  4. I think what bothers me the most, is that the Democrats, & biden administration will take credit for the recovery in the red states. It will neglect to give the statistics, or the fact that those states discarded the ‘lockdown’ rule imposed. They will blithely take credit for the recovery, neglecting to mention the former administration’s
    ‘Warp Speed’ policy. They will neglect to mention that when Trump banned visitors, and flights, from China, they all whined, and called him phobic. And, saddest of all! Thanks to the disastrous i reporting of so-called mainstream journalists, the public will remain in the dark.

  5. I live in central Florida at age 85. Since covid arrived on the sceneI have continued to live a more or less normal life. At my age I hopefully have gained a degree of common sense and followed the guidelines as our Governor has clearly and frequently outlined. I trust his judgement. As a consequence I have never felt frightened or scared of going out and doing all the things I wanted to do. I have friends and relations up North who are half my age who are frightened to the point of paranoia, many of whom have rarely put a foot out of the door since covid began. They genuinely seem to believe that they will truly die unless they follow their Governor’s mandate and that Florida’s figures must be false and that our Governor is hiding the truth. You judge who is right. I am now totally vaccinated and just feel blessed to live in Florida. Thank you Governor De Santis. My life has been so much better than it could have been thanks to you.

  6. Heavy handed government never works. Most people in the government aren’t smart enough to solve the problems they are supposed to solve much less solve a pandemic. Killing an economy because you think it will stop the spread of a disease is moronic. Individuals taking responsibility for their own health works. If you are in a high risk group then wear a mask and go out only when you absolutely have to. If you are healthy then go about your life but do not put those in the high risk group at risk. I know several people in California who lost their jobs. Some were temporary and some ended up as permanent. This pandemic shows the character of our governors. The Republican ones let the people do as they see fit. The democrat ones took advantage of this pandemic and went into full totalitarian mode. Their lust for power is well disgusting.

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